Geoinformatic Models, Simulations and Scenarios

- purpose and characteristics of GIS -based modeling, simulations, and scenarios in geography; the temporal dimension of geographic modeling,
- overview of selected methods, tools and examples of GIS -based geographic modeling, simulations and scenarios,
- fundamentals of GIS -based simulation modeling of processes, with emphasis on land use/land cover change modeling: change analysis, geographic Markov chain method, cellular automata method, predictive simulation modeling, deterministic and probabilistic prediction of spatial changes, static and dynamic explanatory variables, selected machine learning methods for generating probability maps of transitions between land use/land cover categories, conditions and implementation of quality assessment of simulation prediction results,
- the fundamentals of applying the scenario method in geography: the relationship between simulations and scenarios; quantitative and qualitative elements of the scenario method; exploratory and anticipatory scenarios; complexity of geographic scenarios; central process and driving factors; recommendations for creating effective, persuasive scenarios; conceptualization and implementation scenarios;
- independent design and implementation of GIS-based scenarios of spatial change of the selected process in the selected area,
- written project work, documentation and research database, presentation in the seminar.

• Briassoulis, H., 2020. Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches. Regional Research Institute. https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1000&con…
• Eastman, R. J., 2016. TerrSet – Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling System. Manual. Clark Labs. https://clarklabs.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Terrset-Manual.pdf
• Lloyd, C. D., 2007. Local models for spatial analysis. Roca Baton, Taylor&Francis, 244 str. COBISS.SI-ID – 39792994
• Meadows, D., Randers, J., Meadows, D., 2004. Limits to growth. The 30-year update. White River Junction, Chelsea Green, 338 str. COBISS.SI-ID – 24139613
• Spatial models and GIS. New potential and new models. 2000. Fotheringham, A. S., Wegener, M. (eds.). London, Philadelphia, Taylor & Francis, 279 str. COBISS.SI-ID – 1610179
• Izbrana dela iz sodobne geografske literature s področja geografskega modeliranja, simulacij in scenarijev (po izboru študenta glede na tematiko projekta).

Other current literature available in the e-classroom.